Rarely. It has happened only twice in the last 10 years. When Slava Ukraini won last year, and when Queen Rouge won in 2019. The second favourite, on the other hand, has won five times in the last ten years. What does that tell us about the Danish Derby 2024? That there is a 70 per cent chance that either the favourite or the second favourite wins.
SLAVA UKRAINI – THE BIGGEST DERBY FAVOURITE OF THE LAST 10 YEARS.
You got back only 18 kroner for 10 if you had backed Slava Ukraini (Moohaajim) to win last year’s Danish Derby.
Slava Ukraini is the biggest favourite for the Danish Derby over the last 10 years. And he did not let anyone down. But the Derby favourites usually do.
Even the biggest of them. Stradivarius (Chinese Mandarin) in 2014 and King David (Elusive City) in 2019, who were both backed down to 20:10, but had to settle for second place.
Stradivarius did on the other hand later win the Breeders’ Trophy Stayer at Bro Park, and the still active, – now 10-year-old King David – has won any number of big races, among them the three Group 3 races Grosser Preis Von Lotto, Stockholms Stora Pris and Marit Sveaas Minneløp.
TOTE BETTING AND THE DANISH DERBY OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS.
QUEEN ROUGE – THE MOST COMMANDING DANISH DERBY WINNER.
Queen Rouge (Lord Of England) is the other Derby favourite to have won the Danish Derby in the last 10 years. She was a hot favourite at 21:10 when in 2019 she won by 10 lengths – the most commanding Derby win of the last 10 years.
Another very commanding Derby winner is Suspicious Mind (Appel Au Maitre), who in 2016 won by seven lengths ahead of Marlborough (Mastercraftsman) and the favourite Lifeofbryan (Appel Au Maitre).
Both Queen Rouge and Suspicious Mind came from placings in the Svenskt Derby, where they had to take on imports.
Queen Rouge was third behind Red Cactus (Hard Spun) and the later Norwegian Derby winner Privilegiado (Sea The Moon), Suspicious Mind (Appel Au Maitre), was fifth, but beaten only 1 ½ lengths in 2016, when Duke Of Burden (Footstepsinthesand) won the Svenskt Derby.
In this year’s Danish Derby we get the chance to see three horses who all did well in the Svenskt Derby.
Schamyl (Appel au Maitre), who won. The first Danish-bred horse (Stutteri Hjortebo) to have won the Svenskt Derby since Tao (Gorytus) won in 1991.
Plus the Swedish Derby third Zidane (Aerion) and Masters Call (Appel Au Maitre), who was sixth past the post. They are both trained by Lennart J:r Reuterskiöld, who has yet to record his first Danish Derby triumph.
THE SECOND FAVOURITE HAS WON THE DANISH DERBY FIVE TIMES IN THE LAST 10 YEARS.
A little surprising to me – and probably to many others.
As the overview shows, they are the following second favourites: Davicii (Panis), Manacor (Primatico), Suspicious Mind (Appel Au Maitre), Master Bloom (Pastorius) and Iron Butterfly (Swipe).
While the first two peaked around Derby day, the other three also shone afterwards.
Suspicious Mind with among other things three wins in the Scandinavian Open Championship (Gr.3), which Master Bloom also won, and Iron Butterfly with a win in the Dansk Breeders’ Cup and twice in the Lanwades Stud Stakes (L).
And on three of the five occasions when the second favourite won, the favourite was second. What does that tell us about the Danish Derby 2024?
If you back a forecast (Komb 1-2) with the second favourite ahead of the favourite, there are good chances of winning.
READY TEDDY HAS RETURNED THE BIGGEST ODDS.
The biggest Derby surprise was when Ready Teddy (Maxios) won the Danish Derby in 2020 at 24 times the money.
Ready Teddy had most recently been a close second at Klampenborg to Tassmania (Sir Percy) in the Danish 2000 Guineas, but before the Derby he had run twice unplaced at Bro Park.
This year Biot (City Light) was second in the 2000 Guineas, narrowly beaten by Brigadier (Moohaajim). Since then Biot has won Jyllandsløbet (Jydsk Derby), and he will certainly be among the Derby favourites.
FROM START TO FINISH.
Ready Teddy led the Danish Derby from start to finish. So did Titannia (Appel au Maitre) when she won the Danish Derby in 2022 ahead of the favourite Hear The Drums (Appel au Maitre).
Ready Teddy and Titannia are the two least backed Derby winners of the last 10 years.
After the Danish Derby Ready Teddy also won the Danish St. Leger, and he was therefore very close to becoming a Triple Crown winner.
So was Suspicious Mind in 2016, but he was narrowly beaten in the Danish 2000 Guineas by All Or Nothing (Eishin Dunkirk).
A VERY CLOSE FINISH.
Titannia is, together with Manacor and Queen Rouge, one of the three fillies to have won the Danish Derby in the last 10 years.
When Manacor won the Danish Derby in 2015 we got a historically close finish with five horses within half a length.
Another Derby record that will be hard to beat.
UNBEATEN FAVOURITE.
Stradivarius is the only one in the last 10 years who was unbeaten when he was favourite for the Danish Derby, but Davicii was better on the day.
King David had won six of his seven races before the Danish Derby, and he was unbeaten at Klampenborg, but had suffered a defeat at Øvrevoll as a 2-year-old.
One of this year’s favourites for the Danish Derby, Garlic (Outstrip) is unbeaten in his three starts this year. He was unraced as a 2-year-old.
Most recently Garlic won the Derby Trial Stakes ahead of Amason (Appel au Maitre) and the favourite, the dual 2000 Guineas winner Brigadier (Moohaajim).
In the last 10 years two winners of the Derby Trial Stakes have followed up with a win in the Danish Derby. Davicii in 2014 and Manacor the year after in 2015.
Titannia is the only one in the last 10 years who had won Jyllandsløbet (Jydsk Derby) before she won the Danish Derby in 2022.
This year Biot won the Jutland Derby, and he will certainly attract plenty of support when the Danish Derby 2024 is run on Saturday 3 August at Klampenborg Racecourse.
DEBUT ON KLAMPENBORG’S TURF.
It is always an element of uncertainty if a Derby horse has to make his debut at Klampenborg on Derby day.
But it is perfectly possible to win the Danish Derby without having raced at the track before.
Master Bloom did so in 2018 and Iron Butterfly in 2021.
Among the bigger favourites for the Danish Derby 2024 (the field is unknown at the time of writing) both Schamyl and Zidane are untried in a race on the turf at Klampenborg.
Schamyl is by Appel Au Maitre, whose offspring have never had any problem with the Klampenborg turf, and his dam Whistler (Academy Award) won the Dansk Breeders’ Cup at Klampenborg in 2014.
WHO WILL BE FAVOURITE AND SECOND FAVOURITE IN THE DANISH DERBY 2024?
The punters will decide that on Saturday 3 August, and much can happen before then.
But one is allowed to guess, and my guess is that the Swedish Derby winner Schamyl will be favourite, if he lines up in the Danish Derby – and I very much hope he does – and that the unbeaten winner of the Derby Trial Stakes, Garlic, will be second favourite.
And then there is, according to the overview at the start of the article, a good chance that one of the two wins the Danish Derby 2024.
